Bitcoin Faces Worst Quarter Since 2019 but On Chain Signals Point to Rebound

- Bitcoin Facing the Worst Quarter Since 2019 - Positive Changes Detected in On-chain Data [Unblock Media] Bitcoin is expected to face its worst quarter since 2019, having fallen approximately 25% from its peak. However, on-chain data suggests there are positive changes underlying the short-term market downturn. The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) indicator for Bitcoin has recently remained at low levels. This on-chain metric measures when long-dormant Bitcoin is traded again. A low VDD indicates that long-term holders are not moving their assets, suggesting continued market confidence. Historically, following lows in the VDD indicator, such as in January and October 2023, October 2024, and March 2025, Bitcoin prices have rebounded. This suggests a potential similar recovery trend in the current market. Additionally, the sell-side risk ratio has decreased to a historic low of 0.086%, indicating that investors are favoring holding over selling. Past data shows that when this indicator is low, prices have repeatedly seen a rebound. This could imply a stabilized or upward price trend given reduced selling pressure. On the technical analysis front, there are warning signals. BeInCrypto recently noted the possible formation of a death cross pattern where the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, typically a bear market signal. Political factors also influence the market. Former President Donald Trump has declared his intention to actively support the cryptocurrency industry, including Bitcoin, during his re-election campaign, which has had a positive impact on the market. However, uncertain regulatory directions and tariff policies from political entities could induce market instability. Particularly, Trump's planned retaliatory tariff announcement in early April is anticipated to increase short-term market volatility. This quarter is certainly a challenging period for Bitcoin, yet key on-chain indicators and investor sentiment still point to a potential mid-term upswing. Amidst technical risk signals and political variables, the actions of long-term investors may indicate that the market has not entirely turned bearish.