Comparison of BTC and S&P 500, Unstable Signals
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According to recent Bitcoin analysis, the price of Bitcoin is approximately 11 times higher than the S&P 500 index. This is considered an unstable signal, expressing concerns about the current market situation of Bitcoin. Mike McGlone, Bloomberg's senior commodity strategist, analyzed that Bitcoin is still in a 'rolling over' state, indicating reduced market volatility and a potential downward or stagnant trend. He suggested that Bitcoin's competition as a risk asset might be ending. McGlone stated, "The value of Bitcoin has reached 11 times that of the S&P 500 index, significantly lower than the peak of 15 times recorded in Q1 2020." He attributed this state to effects such as the aftermath of the launch of U.S. ETFs. Additionally, McGlone analyzed the possibility that the ratio of Bitcoin to the S&P 500 index could return to 7 times. This indicates a significant shift in the Bitcoin-S&P 500 relationship. Bitcoin price signals remain volatile. Since reaching an all-time high of $73,000 in March 2024, it is currently hovering near $59,000. In contrast, the S&P 500 index recently hit an all-time high. This difference illustrates the instability of Bitcoin prices. Differences are also evident when comparing Bitcoin to gold. While gold has long been recognized as a stable store of value, Bitcoin exhibits significant volatility. As a digital asset, Bitcoin quickly responds to rapidly changing technological and economic environments. For this reason, Bitcoin is recognized as a unique investment asset distinct from the current financial system. Experts believe that if Bitcoin breaks out of its current consolidation phase, it could again reach a peak exceeding $70,000. Conversely, they warn that if a downward trend begins, it could fall below $50,000. To predict this, one must monitor various indicators such as trading volume, network hashrate, and global economic conditions. The recent increase in hashrate and fluctuations in trading volume over the past few months will be critical reference points for understanding movements in the Bitcoin market. The market situation of Bitcoin remains complex and dynamic. The overall value and stability of Bitcoin can be influenced by various factors, including global economic conditions and regulatory changes. However, Bitcoin's decentralization and fixed supply (21 million units) will serve as strong advantages in the long term.
