Roy

People

Trump vs Harris The Change the US Election Will Bring to the Cryptocurrency Market

5시간 전

- Comparison of Trump and Harris's Cryptocurrency Policies - Cryptocurrency Market Outlook Depending on Each Candidate's Victory [Unblock Media] With the U.S. presidential election just a month away, the cryptocurrency industry is paying close attention to how the policies of a Trump or Harris administration might impact the market. Each candidate has demonstrated contrasting approaches to cryptocurrency, raising several questions about the industry's future. Trump has historically been critical of Bitcoin but has shifted to a more favorable stance toward cryptocurrencies this year. He has accepted campaign contributions in cryptocurrency and stated his intention to make the U.S. a dominant force in Bitcoin mining. Furthermore, Trump plans to appoint a cryptocurrency-friendly chair to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and has proposed a national strategic Bitcoin reserve plan. Trump's pro-cryptocurrency policies are expected to lay the groundwork for Bitcoin to become mainstream and send positive signals to institutional investors. His policy support and friendly regulatory environment are anticipated to attract new investments into the market. On the other hand, Vice Presidential candidate Harris has yet to mention cryptocurrencies in her speeches or policy statements until recently. However, at a Wall Street fundraiser in September, she emphasized consumer protection while also expressing support for the cryptocurrency industry. In a subsequent speech at the Pittsburgh Economic Club, she stated that the U.S. should dominate the blockchain sector, adding that digital assets and artificial intelligence are part of her "Opportunity Economy" vision. Harris's "Opportunity Economy" vision aims for innovation and inclusive growth through blockchain and AI technologies. Bipartisan support for cryptocurrency could be encouraging for industry players. For instance, Uniswap founder Hayden Adams regards Harris's progressive approach as positive compared to President Joe Biden. Adams views Harris's policies as promoting regulatory compliance while maintaining blockchain innovation. In contrast, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani argues that the cryptocurrency community requires more policy clarity from Harris, noting that the industry's sentiments might be stronger under a Trump victory. Chhugani emphasizes that Harris's ambiguous policies could increase investor uncertainty, whereas Trump's clear policies could foster market stability. There is an optimistic outlook for the cryptocurrency market regardless of the election outcome. Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said, "There is a growing sentiment that cryptocurrency will be a winner regardless of what happens in November." However, the impact of each candidate on the market will differ. President Trump's policies are likely to favor major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, backed by legal changes such as the abolition of certain levies. The Harris administration is likely to focus on consumer protection and regulatory clarity. Ultimately, a Trump re-election could lead to a faster rise in Bitcoin due to his pro-cryptocurrency policies. In contrast, a Harris victory might result in slower cryptocurrency growth, but there remains potential for long-term development through the "Opportunity Economy" incorporating blockchain and AI. In conclusion, the cryptocurrency market is likely to experience short-term volatility based on the election results, but continued growth is expected in the long term as both sides acknowledge the importance of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.

Max

Market

US September Job Growth Significantly Exceeds Expectations, Driving Bitcoin Rally

2024-10-05 05:53

- The U.S. Adds 254,000 New Jobs in September - Bitcoin Rises Driven by Decreased Holdings on Centralized Exchanges [Unblock Media] The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the economy added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly surpassing economists' forecast of 140,000 new jobs. Robust employment data indicates strong economic growth, signifying an increase in consumer and business activities. Such positive employment data stimulates investor sentiment towards risk assets like Bitcoin, further reinforcing confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy. Along with economic growth, the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased investors' risk tolerance, contributing to the rise in Bitcoin prices. On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 0.5%, a move prompted by slower inflation and economic growth in August. Less than 160,000 jobs were added in August, and the annual inflation rate fell below 3%. However, the strong employment data for September suggests that rates may not be significantly reduced in the upcoming Fed meeting. According to CME FedWatch, current futures market pricing indicates that rates are not expected to be cut by more than 0.25% at the next Fed meeting. The current target rate is around 4.75%. Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for businesses and individuals, stimulating economic activities and positively affecting investor sentiment. Additionally, lower rates decrease the yields on traditional financial assets, prompting investors to turn to alternative assets like Bitcoin. This has a positive effect on Bitcoin prices as well. Following strong employment data in September, Bitcoin prices surged above an intraday high of $62,300 on October 4. This aligns with the "Uptober" concept, which suggests strong performance for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the quantity of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges has decreased to 2.8 million, the lowest level since 2018. This indicates a strategic shift among investors towards long-term holding of Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges is typically used for trading purposes, a reduction suggests lower selling pressure and decreased supply. A reduced supply creates upward pressure on prices, making the decrease in exchange holdings a positive signal for Bitcoin prices. Amid such circumstances, the Bitcoin market has recovered significantly following the sharp decline on August 5, when Bitcoin plummeted by about 18% in a single day. Grayscale, the largest cryptocurrency asset manager with over $20 billion in assets under management, has considerable influence in the cryptocurrency market. As long as strong economic growth and decreased Bitcoin holdings persist, Bitcoin is likely to continue its upward trend.

Mark

Market

Geopolitical Tensions and Trump's Win, Outlook for the Bitcoin Price

2024-10-04 09:06

- Trump’s Potential Win Sparks Hope for Crypto-Friendly Regulations - Geopolitical Tensions Driving Volatility in Bitcoin Market [Unblock Media] As geopolitical tensions rise and the U.S. presidential election approaches, demand for gold and Bitcoin is surging. Growing economic uncertainty and concerns about government deficits in major economies have brought renewed attention to these assets, which are perceived as safe havens. Particularly, institutional investors, including hedge funds, are treating gold and Bitcoin as similar assets, increasing their allocations accordingly. Former President Donald Trump has promised to ease cryptocurrency regulations and make the United States the "crypto capital" if he wins the upcoming election. His stance is expected to create a favorable policy environment for Bitcoin regulation, making the election outcome a crucial factor for Bitcoin investors. Currently, the open interest in Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is surging, indicating renewed interest from market participants. The recent resumption of Bitcoin ETF inflows has also made it more accessible to retail investors, reinforcing the perception of Bitcoin and gold as similar assets. This trend is a clear sign of increasing demand for Bitcoin among both institutional and retail investors. In the Middle East, escalating geopolitical tensions are also affecting highly volatile assets like Bitcoin. These tensions could increase short-term market volatility and selling pressure, but in the long term, they might enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative asset. Earlier this September, Bitcoin’s price fell sharply, breaking below key support levels represented by the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC has predicted that Bitcoin’s price could continue to decline given the current geopolitical scenario and weakening U.S. economic data. Recent U.S. economic data, including slowing employment growth and weak GDP figures, indicate a broader economic downturn, negatively impacting the Bitcoin market. Such economic instability is likely to further stimulate demand for alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin. In the medium term, a Trump victory could have a positive impact on Bitcoin. Trump’s crypto-friendly stance and regulatory easing could highlight Bitcoin’s attractiveness as an asset to counter currency debasement. However, as Trump’s stance on regulations could change, ongoing monitoring of policy developments is necessary. In the short term, Bitcoin’s price is expected to remain highly volatile. According to technical analysis, if the crucial support level of $60,000 does not hold, the price may drop to $55,000. Conversely, if the support holds, a recovery to $63,000 is possible. The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has also positively influenced investor confidence in Bitcoin. This move signals that Bitcoin is increasingly being recognized as a mainstream investment asset. Amid geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty of the U.S. presidential election, demand for gold and Bitcoin continues to rise. While the potential for regulatory easing by Trump and ongoing geopolitical issues may boost Bitcoin’s long-term value, short-term volatility is expected to persist. Investors must carefully observe these factors as they navigate the shifting market landscape.

Roy

Policy

SEC Appeals Ripple Case, XRP Price Outlook

2024-10-04 07:02

- SEC announces decision to appeal in Ripple case, causing XRP to plunge by 13.05% - Ripple fined approximately $125 million [Unblock Media] The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced its decision to appeal a federal judge's verdict regarding Ripple (XRP). The core issue in this case is whether Ripple's sales of XRP violated securities laws. Judge Analisa Torres ruled in July 2023 that while Ripple's institutional sales violated federal securities laws, its programmatic sales to retail exchanges did not. The contradictory nature of this ruling stems from the complexity and difficult-to-understand regulations and interpretations of U.S. securities laws. To explain the term "disgorgement," it involves the recovery of ill-gotten gains to restore the status quo. In this case, the SEC sought approximately $2 billion in disgorgement from Ripple, but the judge imposed a fine of $125 million. The significant point here is why disgorgement became a notable issue in the Ripple case. If the SEC's claims regarding ill-gotten gains are accurate, it could legally clarify Ripple's responsibility. This will also function as a key point in the SEC's appeal argument. The SEC argues that the judge's ruling conflicts with decades of Supreme Court precedents and securities laws. These legal differences could have significant implications for the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry moving forward. Ripple sees the ruling positively, with CEO Brad Garlinghouse tweeting, "The SEC lost everything important." Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty mentioned that the appeal is "disappointing but not surprising." Events like these, which present technically complex and legally new challenges in the cryptocurrency and blockchain domain, are accelerating the evolution of regulations and laws. For example, similar controversies have arisen in past years with the SEC and Coinbase case, but final rulings helped reduce regulatory uncertainty. Such cases play a crucial role in adding credibility to the blockchain and cryptocurrency market and in forming a transparent regulatory framework. In the ongoing appeal process, the arguments presented by the SEC and the eventual judgment of the appellate court will be pivotal. If the SEC's appeal successfully overturns the ruling, the cryptocurrency industry may once again be subject to securities laws, necessitating major crypto companies to strengthen their legal defenses and regulatory compliance. Conversely, if the appeal is dismissed or Ripple's victory is confirmed, it could mark a significant turning point regarding the legal status of cryptocurrencies. Over the past 24 hours, XRP traded at $0.5247, which represents a 13.05% decrease. XRP’s volatility has increased following the SEC’s appeal announcement. This reflects investor caution regarding legal risks and the renewed uncertainty surrounding Ripple’s final legal status. If XRP breaks its major support level, it could lead to additional selling pressure. Conversely, if the legal proceedings progress favorably, there is potential for XRP to break through resistance levels and rebound.

Mark

Market

Middle East Conflict Sparks Gold Rally, Digital Gold Bitcoin Faces Decline

2024-10-02 08:39

- Gold Price Rises 1.18%, Bitcoin Drops 4% - Increased Demand for Safe Assets Gold Due to Middle East Tensions [Unblock Media] The rising tensions in the Middle East are causing a surge in demand for safe assets. The White House has announced that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile attack on Israel. This seems to be in retaliation for the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Israel's ground operations in Lebanon. The United States has pledged to defend Israel. Rhona O’Connell from StoneX analyzed that geopolitical tensions and uncertainties over the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate cut path are major factors driving up gold prices. O’Connell added, "Without these geopolitical factors, gold prices would have fallen to around $2,500 to $2,600." Currently, gold futures finished trading at $2,667.30 per ounce, close to last week’s record high. SPDR Gold Shares also rose by 1.2%. Comex gold futures rose 1.18% to $2,667.30 per ounce. This is the largest daily dollar and percentage rise since September 20, 2024. It also marked the second-highest closing price ever, breaking a two-day losing streak and marking gains in 8 out of the last 10 sessions. This closing price is the second highest of the year, just 0.10% below the 52-week high. Bitcoin is showing a downward trend amid rising Middle East tensions. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $60,799 as of 8:30 a.m. on the 2nd, down 4% from the previous day. Ethereum also fell by 5.22%, trading at $2,473. Due to Bitcoin’s highly volatile nature, investors tend to favor tangible assets like gold in times of increased uncertainty, indicating that Bitcoin hasn’t yet achieved the same stability as gold. However, SpotOnChain analyzed that "there is a 69% chance that Bitcoin will reach an all-time high this month, and a 54% chance of reaching $100,000 by year-end." Matrixport also predicts that Bitcoin is likely to rebound from early October. In addition, global blockchain experts argue that although Bitcoin has not yet matured, it has tremendous long-term growth potential. Currently, Bitcoin’s RSI(14) is 43.22, indicating near-oversold conditions, suggesting a possible rebound though not a strong buy signal. SpotOnChain also noted that Bitcoin closed last month up 7.4%, expecting the upward trend to continue in Q4, implying that despite short-term bearishness, there is medium- to long-term upside potential.